Iran confronts the US over a minesweeper in the Strait of Hormuz. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 6.7% YES.

A Hezbollah post-ceasefire booby trap killed an IDF reservist in southern Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 ...

Trump convened a Situation Room meeting as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 at 12% ...

US forces have returned 23 vessels to Iran as part of a naval blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market ...

Aave's price dropped 12% after Kelp DAO's $280M DeFi exploit. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026 is at 4% YES.

On-chain analyst @zachxbt reports a $280M theft from DeFi protocols on Ethereum and Arbitrum, while unresolved issues from ...

Israel prepares for potential Iran escalation as US military posture shifts. Ceasefire ending by April 21 now at 20% YES.

Lindsey Graham claims Iran's military holds real power, with the chance of regime collapse by May 31 now at 3.6% YES.

IRGC warns vessels in the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted if ignored. UK sending warships by April 30, 2026 at 8.5% YES.

U.S. military planes land in the region as Iran warns of conflict escalation. Ceasefire ending by April 21 at 20.5% YES.

Iran's Rezaei dismisses Trump's nuclear claims as 'April lies.' Ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 at 23% YES.

Trump ordered Israel to halt attacks on Lebanon, enforcing a 10-day ceasefire. Market on Trump endorsing ceasefire by April ...