Iran confronts the US over a minesweeper in the Strait of Hormuz. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 6.7% YES.

Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops amid security concerns. Fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 at ...

Israel is investigating four IDF soldiers for allegedly passing information to Iran, pushing the odds of Israeli military ...

Iranian Deputy FM Saeed Khatibzadeh says Tehran won’t engage in new talks with the US due to Washington’s “maximalist” ...

Iran's Rezaei dismisses Trump's nuclear claims as 'April lies.' Ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 at 23% YES.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions with the US. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at 1.4% YES.

Netherlands activates energy crisis plan amid oil disruptions. US crude oil reserves falling to 325M by May 1 at 1.1% YES.

US forces have returned 23 vessels to Iran as part of a naval blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market ...

A Hezbollah post-ceasefire booby trap killed an IDF reservist in southern Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 ...

Trump convened a Situation Room meeting as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 at 12% ...

Aave's price dropped 12% after Kelp DAO's $280M DeFi exploit. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026 is at 4% YES.

Lindsey Graham claims Iran's military holds real power, with the chance of regime collapse by May 31 now at 3.6% YES.