Sometimes statistical analysis is tricky, and sometimes a finding just jumps off the page. Here’s one example of the latter.

If you’re one of the approximately 320 million Americans who don’t live in New York City, it might seem like its Democratic mayoral primary has gotten an outsized amount of media coverage. But even I, ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...

While most people perceived the economy as a more pressing concern generally, abortion was a motivating issue for a substantial number of voters. Why did election results diverge so dramatically from ...

Apportionment, or the process of determining the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives, happens like clockwork at this point. Every 10 years, the Census Bureau counts how ...

Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists — FiveThirtyEight included, twice over ...

It used to be, if you wanted to see a Poweshiek skipperling butterfly, the thing to do was go out on the prairie and stare into the middle distance, like you were trying to see a sailboat buried in a ...

FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization. Let me explain what we mean by that, and why we think the intersection of data and journalism is so important. If you’re a casual reader of ...

All market ratings are adjusted for projected population growth through 2040. Popularity measured by Google Trends. Sources: Zach Miller, Google Trends, The New York Times, CollegeRaptor.com, ...

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Nate’s on a plaaaannnnne!! micah: lol. That’ll never not be funny. OK, first up: Who hates what? Let’s start broad and then get as specific as we ...

But trying to distinguish the effects of only one type of restriction, like voter ID requirements, is challenging because a new election law rarely changes only one voting provision. “The actual ...

On Monday, I wrote about my three key questions heading into Election Day. I’ll address the first two — about polling error and turnout — at length once results ...